Contango

Contango is a situation in which the futures price (or forward price) of a commodity is higher than the spot price. In a contango situation, arbitrageurs or speculators are "willing to pay more for a commodity [to be received] at some point in the future than to purchase the commodity immediately. This may be due to people's desire to pay a premium to have the commodity in the future rather than paying the costs of storage and carry costs of buying the commodity today." On the other side of the trade, hedgers (commodity producers and commodity holders) are happy to sell futures contracts and accept the higher-than-expected returns. A contango market is also known as a normal market or carrying-cost market. The opposite market condition to contango is known as backwardation. "A market is 'in backwardation' when the futures price is below the spot price for a particular commodity. This is favorable for investors who have long positions since they want the futures price to rise to the level of the current spot price". In industry parlance, contango may refer to the situation when futures prices (or forward prices) are above the current spot price, or a far-dated futures price is above a near-dated futures price, and the expectation is for the spot price to rise to the futures price at maturity, or the near-dated futures price to rise to the far-dated futures price. The futures or forward curve would typically be upward sloping (i.e., "normal"), since contracts for further dates would typically trade at even higher prices. The curves in question plot market prices for various contracts at different maturities (cf. term structure of interest rates). "In broad terms, backwardation reflects the majority market view that spot prices will move down, and contango that they will move up. Both...